Q3 2021
Are we starting to witness the market settling down after a torrential start to 2021?
An unexpected real estate boom in both sales volumes and prices hit record levels in the Fall of 2020 after the Covid lockdown. The market continued to buck pricing trends moving into 2021 hitting a peak in March of this year. Detached homes and townhomes pushed the price thresholds and set historical pricing records this year.
Moving into the summer we saw sales volumes come off slightly while prices seem to have somewhat plateaued. Even though sales volumes have trended downward since our record breaking Spring, we are still finding the total inventory of homes for sale insufficient (lowest in 5 years) to meet today’s market demand.
Again we come to the age old question of how to fix Vancouver’s (and Canada’s) affordability crisis and again it comes down to Occam’s Razor, simplest explanation is usually the best one. We need more SUPPLY. With the federal election now behind us, we hope to see governments at all levels work with the construction industry to streamline the creation of a more abundant supply of housing.
So where are we headed and what is real estate going to look like in 2022 and beyond?
We think we’re heading into a market that will be driven by buyers, there will be our typical lack of supply and prices will continue to trend up. Even with the limited construction we do have coming to market within the next two years; general material costs, labour costs and gas prices has spiked. Downtown condos that would be launched at $2,000/SF, are being launched today closer to $2,500/SF.
Earlier this year we anticipated the Downtown condo market to gain some legs as it has been the only sub area in the Lower Mainland that has remained completely flat over the last two years. With immigration numbers bound to increase, pricing remaining flat and interest rates at all time lows the condo market is poised to take off. One of the housing platform policies the Liberals were preaching throughout their campaign was banning foreign buyers from purchasing homes for the next two years. This will obviously have an impact on both the condo market as well as the luxury market over $5 million. Overall, we should see prices continue to rise and seller’s continue to reap the benefits of a limited housing inventory.
Highlighted Q3 Area Stats
North Vancouver Detached
Sales Ratio - 45% (UP 8%)
Sales Volume - Up 42%
Inventory - Up 30%
Average Sale Price - $2,147,500 (Up $303,000)
North Vancouver Condos
Sales Ratio - 46% (Up 22%)
Sales Volume - UP 20%
Inventory - DOWN 2%
Average Sale Price - $808,000 (UP 12%)
Average Price Per Square Foot - $866 (UP 4%)
North Vancouver Townhomes
Sales Ratio - 64% (UP 23%)
Sales Volume - DOWN 17%
Inventory - DOWN 36%
Average Sale Price - $1,250,000 (UP $107,000)
Downtown Condos
Sales Ratio - 25% (Up 22%)
Sales Volume - UP 32%
Inventory - UP 13%
Average Sale Price - $1,068,000 (DOWN 11%)
Average Price Per Square Foot - $1,156 (UNCHANGED)
Downtown Townhomes
Sales Ratio - 38% (UP 5%)
Sales Volume - UP 33%
Inventory - DOWN 21%
Average Sale Price - $2,081,000 (UP 27%)
***Based on January 2021 to September 2021 Comparison***